Trough into the British economy out of recession, the road to recovery in one year, for various reasons, especially the Government to cut the impact of spending plans, the pace of recovery has really faltered, lack of motivation. The recent surge in international oil prices continue, despite economic recovery in the UK can not be said to be worse, but it is the economic prospects of the new shadow cast is not too much.
from the trend of international oil price curve of the past six months, is basically a type of road along a hill rising. Last June the price of oil is roughly the price of more than 70 U.S. dollars per barrel hovered in October more than 80 U.S. dollars a barrel, now approaching 100 dollars a barrel. According to the current trend to see, once again surpassed the ten dollar mark seems to be within sight.
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rapidly rising international oil prices, economic recovery in the UK has played a negative role, the prospects for recovery cast a new shadow. Bear the brunt of the wholesale price index rose sharply, to become a leader in consumer price inflation. National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data for this had been a marked expression. Bureau of Statistics reported that in December last year, British products out of The production of raw materials, etc. into the The report clearly pointed out that in December the rapid rise in UK product ex-factory price, the most important is due to soaring international oil prices caused. Because, if planing to two categories of energy and food prices, core wholesale prices rose the UK is 3.3% the previous month dropped to 2.9%.
rising product prices are also available on the market will inevitably lead to rising commodity prices, consumer prices in recent months, the UK continued rapid rise of the most important factor. The latest statistics show that last year the UK in December to an annual rate of consumer price index rose 3.7%, the biggest gain in 8 months to the month of November compared to 3.3% as much as 0.4 percentage points higher. The most direct prices of petroleum products more clearly seen last December's increase of 2.8% over the same period of 1996 to the largest increase. UK petrol prices are more telling. The end of 2009 the UK price of unleaded petrol per liter on average still only ? 1.08. British Energy analysts were expecting the end of 2010 rose to ? 1.23 may be large. At present, the average UK petrol prices have been up to ? 1.29 per liter.
oil prices will undoubtedly lead to higher inflation adversely affect the economic recovery. However, the extent of impact in the end, all predicted the same. Comparison of the authority of Ernst & Young's latest prediction is: if international oil prices to 100 dollars a barrel and remain at that level this year, Britain's consumer prices will rise by 1 percentage point, while the corresponding decline in GDP 0.1 percentage points. Specifically, the originally forecast this year, consumer prices in general the UK rose from 3% to 4%, while GDP growth from the previous forecast of 2.2% to 2.1%. If oil prices to 120 dollars a barrel, the situation will be worse. GDP will be further reduced to 2%, the price index will continue to rise. The situation in 2012 will be the case. Long-term if oil prices remain at the high price of 100 dollars a barrel, the United Kingdom's economic growth rate of 2.9% from the current projected to slow to 2.8%.
oil prices push up inflation, the Bank of England out for a new major challenge. On the one hand, the slow economic recovery, weak stimulus needed to loose monetary policy in order to promote faster economic recovery; the other hand, inflationary pressures increased at a rapid pace and need to consider tightening monetary policy to prevent inflation out of control. Faced with such a dilemma situation, the Bank of England Bank of England policymakers are really nerve-racking.
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